xpang@pku.edu.cn
Room B216
Pang Xun

Professor, Department of National Security Studies 

Director, Peking University Global Risk Politics Analysis Lab

Education Background

Washington University in St. Louis Ph.D. in Political Scienc

Peking University M.A. in International Relations

Peking University B.A. in International Relations & B.A. in Economics

Research Areas

Global risk politics, geopolitics and economic security, international organizations, Bayesian statistics, causal inference, computational political science, and AI methods in the social sciences.

Books:

Global Risk Politics in the Age of Anxiety and Rage: The Logic of “Hot Politics” in Security and Governance, Peking University Press, forthcoming

BRICS Development Aid Cooperation in Global Governance, World Affairs Press, 2016

Selected Articles

 “Can International Organizations Promote Transparency?” Political Science Research and Methods, First View.

“The Impact of Digital and Intelligent Methods on International Relations Studies: Empowerment, Challenges, and Adaptation,” World Economics and Politics, No. 1, 2025.

“Exploring the Empowerment of Social Science Research by Artificial Intelligence: Generative Actors, Complex Causal Analysis, and Human-Machine Research Collaboration,” World Economics and Politics, No. 7, 2024.

“Reflection and Reconstruction: Risk Political Theory and Methods in Global Security and Global Governance,” International Politics Studies, No. 2, 2024.

“A Decade of Development and Pathways in Quantitative International Relations Research in China,” Quarterly Journal of International Politics, No. 1, 2024.

“A Bayesian Multifactor Spatio-Temporal Model for Estimating Time-Varying Network Interdependence,” Political Science Research and Methods, 11(4), 2023.

“A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies,” Political Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2022.

“Comprehensive Security Theory: The Reverse Definition of Risk and Its Political Logic,” International Politics Studies, No. 6, 2022.

“Innovative Academic Communities: The Mission and Spirit of Social Science Laboratories,” Higher Education and Disciplines, No. 4, 2022.

“Avoiding ‘Drawing Unwarranted Conclusions’: Identification and Reliability in Social Science Research,” China Social Science Review, No. 3, 2021.

“Structural Power in Global Value Chains and the Evolution of the International Landscape,” Social Sciences in China, No. 9, 2021.

“Global Value Chain Dependence and Political Risks in Foreign Investment,” World Economics and Politics, No. 8, 2021.

“The ‘Hirschman Effect’ in International Finance,” World Economics and Politics, No. 6, 2020.

“Big Data Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Attacks in Africa: Based on GIS Technology and Split-Population Duration Models,” Foreign Affairs Review, No. 2, 2020.

“Analyzing China-U.S. Relations Based on Mass Event Data: Reciprocal Reactions, Policy Inertia, and Third-Party Factors,” World Economics and Politics, No. 5, 2019.

“The International Political Significance of Chinese and U.S. Foreign Aid: Evidence from UN General Assembly Voting,” Social Sciences in China, No. 3, 2017.

(English Version) “The International Political Significance of Chinese and US Foreign Aid: As Seen in United Nations General Assembly Voting,” Social Sciences in China, Vol. 39, No. 1, 2018, pp. 5–33.

“China’s Network Strategy for Seeking Great Power Status,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2017, pp. 1–29.

“Sources of Risk and Methods of Handling in Quantitative Forecasting: A Reanalysis of the ‘High-Intensity Political Instability’ Prediction Project,” Quarterly Journal of International Politics, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2017.

“The Selective Failure of ‘Indicator Power’ in Global Governance: Causal Inference Based on Aid Rating Indicators,” World Economics and Politics, No. 11, 2017.

“Shared Challenges and Solutions: The Common Future of Comparative Politics and Quantitative Methodology,” Chinese Political Science Review, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2016, pp. 472–488.

“International Systems and Domestic Politics: Linking Complex Theories with Empirical Models in International Relations,” International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2, 2015, pp. 275–309.

“Hegemony and Institutions: How the United States Manipulates Regional Development Banks,” World Economics and Politics, No. 8, 2015.

“Returning to the Relational Context of Power: Network Analysis and Measurement of State Social Power,” World Economics and Politics, No. 6, 2015.

“Varying Responses to Common Shocks and Complex Cross-Sectional Dependence: Dynamic Multilevel Modeling with Multifactor Error Structures for Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data,” Political Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 4, 2014, pp. 464–496.

“Micro-Level Decision-Making vs. Macro-Level Policy: The Bureaucratic Politics of U.S. Foreign Aid,” Foreign Affairs Review, No. 3, 2014.

“Quantitative Methods: Definitions, Rules, and Operations,” World Economics and Politics, No. 1, 2014.

“The Rise and New Approaches of Emerging Donors: An Empirical Comparative Study of Horizontal and Vertical Paradigms,” World Economics and Politics, No. 5, 2013.

“Endogenous Jurisprudential Regimes,” Political Analysis, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2012, pp. 417–436.

“Overcoming Collective Action Dilemmas in International Public Goods,” World Economics and Politics, No. 7, 2012.

“Modeling Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation in Binary TSCS Data: A Bayesian Multilevel Model with AR(p) Errors,” Political Analysis, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2010, pp. 470–498.